Reconciling the Process-based Projection Method with the Semi-Empirical Method for Accurate Future Predictions of Sea Level Change
By Brian Oh
Ever since I was little, my parents have constantly taken me to the Museum of Natural History in New York City. As soon as I rushed through the old wooden doors of the building, I rushed past the dinosaurs, down the stairs, and ran down the hallway to find myself standing in front of the gigantic blue whale. Marine creatures have always inspired me; they’re always out of sight, yet so fascinating . . . Rising sea level, in conjunction with climate change, has the potential to lead to significant societal disruption over the next century. With the global mean rate of increase in relative sea level (RSL) at 1.7 mm/yr, which is predicted to accelerate to 3.88 mm/yr over the last decade of the 21st century, can lead to destructive effects- not only the obvious harms such as flooding. In fact, saltwater intrusion is a large implication for contamination of sources of drinking water; irrigation is thus also potentially affected, with large amounts of farmland becoming useless as RSL increases (Hartig, Kolker, Mushacke, & Fallon, 2002; Rice, Hong, & Shen, 2012). Further understanding of RSL is therefore required for improved preparation and mitigation strategies for potential consequences of increased RSL (Shepard et al., 2012).