The Path to Better Prediction of Hurricane Economic Loss

On October 29, 2012, Hurricane Sandy made landfall and caused widespread damage along the eastern seaboard. Although it had a weak maximum wind speed of 75 mph, Hurricane Sandy led to a total loss of approximately 51.2 billion dollars. Upon watching the disturbing images of wreckage on television, I was overwhelmed with sadness and curiosity. When I heard news reporters claiming that Sandy was as extremely large in size but its wind speed was not very high, I was surprised that a seemingly weak hurricane could be so destructive. I then began to wonder the significance of hurricane size in determining the huge economic loss. After talking to my mother, an atmospheric scientist, and Dr. Lixin Zeng, an expert on hazard insurance, I learned that many empirical hurricane loss models solely rely on wind speed to determine the overall loss and ignore the role of size. I realized that I had the opportunity to discover something brand new. Inspired, I rifled through internet databases and statistical models to develop an economic loss model that uses a variety of predictors for hurricane loss.

• Meteorology