A Quantitative Regression and Volatility Analysis of the Relationship Between Economics and Political Stability
By Lucca Forrest
My mother was born behind the Iron Curtain in Prague, Czechoslovakia. The communist government stole her family’s belongings and forced them to work demanding physical labor jobs. Wishing for a better life, her family illegally fled across the border and immigrated to America in 1968. The communist government eventually fell in 1989 due to the Velvet Revolution, an anti-communist protest fueled by an economic downturn. In June 1990, Czechoslovakia’s first democratic elections established a new government that transformed the economy by moving company ownership from the state to private entities. While learning about this historical event at the core of my family story, I was drawn in by the dynamic relationship between economic trends and political stability: an economic depression caused an upheaval of the governmental system, ultimately leading to a new political system and administrative economic policy transition. This sparked a question: how are political stability and economic trends correlated beyond this seemingly insignificant revolution, and how could this relationship be quantified?